In a recent
interview, the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no
longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon.

  • Software will disrupt most traditional
    industries in the next 5-10 years.
  • Uber is
    just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest
    taxi company in the world
  • Airbnb is now the biggest hotel
    company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
  • Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially
    better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
    player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don’t get
jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less
basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There
will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.Watson
already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human
nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.

  • Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving
    cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will
    start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call
    a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
    your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
    driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never
    get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.It will change the cities,
    because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former
    parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car
    accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000
    km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million
    miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become
bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just
build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are
completely terrified of Tesla.

  • Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance
    will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
  • Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people
    will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
  • Electric cars will become
    mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will
    run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar
    has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can
    now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed
worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access
to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that
can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

  • With cheap electricity comes
    cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh
    per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places,
    we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if
    anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
  • Health: The Tricorder X price will be
    announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device
    (called the ”Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your
    phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into
  • It then analyses 54 biomarkers
    that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years
    everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis,
    nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
  • 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D
    printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time,
    it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started
    3D printing shoes.Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in
    remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the
    need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will
have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your
perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a
complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being
produced will be 3D printed.

  • Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you
    want to go in, ask yourself: ”in the future, do you think we will
    have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen

If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the
idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to
failure in the 21st century.

  • Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear
    in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear
    if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
  • Agriculture: There will be a $100
    agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then
    become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
  • Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is
    now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right
    now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we
    don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring
    insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat.
    It will be labelled as ”alternative protein source” (because
    most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
  • There is an app called
    ”moodies” which can already tell in which mood you’re in. By
    2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you
    are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when
    they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.
  • Bitcoin may
    even become the default reserve currency … Of the world!
  • Longevity: Right now, the average life
    span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to
    be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by
    2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might
    live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
  • Education: The cheapest smart phones are
    already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a
    smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class
  • Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at
    school in First World countries. There have already been releases of
    software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli
    and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the
    English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can
    become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year